By HIROKO TABUCHI
Published: March 24, 2010
TOKYO — The Japanese government on Wednesday pushed a record 92.3 trillion yen ($1 trillion) budget through Parliament aimed at stimulating growth in the long-stagnant economy. It means another round of spending and adding to Tokyo’s already substantial public debt.
Also on Wednesday, the government said it would retain a significant stake in the country’s extensive postal banking system, reversing the course of privatization efforts of previous administrations.
The nation’s fiscal largess has long been supported by Japan Post, the country’s biggest customer for Japanese government bonds. A de facto government guarantee on deposits made at the postal bank has attracted huge amounts: about 300 trillion yen, or more than the annual gross domestic output of France.
Recent data shows the Japanese economy, the world’s largest after the United States, is slowly emerging from its worst recession since World War II, as a global recovery sets off a rebound in exports, production and employment. But some economists worry about runaway government spending in Japan, which is already saddled with a public debt twice the size of its economy — the worst ratio among industrialized countries.
The government said it would issue a record 44 trillion yen in bonds to finance the budget for next year and cover for a sharp shortfall in tax revenue.
The budget passed for the fiscal year starting in April would pay for Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s ambitious stimulus agenda, including cash handouts to households with young children and income support for farmers.
Mr. Hatoyama, who heads the Democratic Party, is looking to bolster both Japan’s economy, which has been hit by deflation, and his slumping popularity before important elections this summer.
“Creating a virtuous circle in which a growth strategy spurs employment and demand will help combat deflation,” Mr. Hatoyama said.
In January, the ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut its outlook for Japan’s sovereign rating, saying that Mr. Hatoyama appeared to have no plan to start containing the country’s spiraling debt.
Japan’s fiscal spending is often doled out to pork-barrel public works projects, like dams on virtually every major river and mountainous roads to nowhere.
Trying to remedy the unhealthy flow of finances, the former prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, started a privatization drive for Japan Post last decade. Under the plan, Japan Post’s financial units were to be freed from government control by 2017, a centerpiece of structural changes meant to forge a more market-oriented economy in Japan.
Though Mr. Koizumi’s plans appeared to enjoy public support at the time, disastrous terms in office for his successors — marked by recession and the global economic crisis — have largely discredited his privatization agenda.
In August, Mr. Hatoyama cast Mr. Koizumi’s Liberal Democrats from power in a landmark election that ended a half-century of almost uninterrupted governance in Japan. The new administration soon began a review of the postal privatization process.
Some within Mr. Hatoyama’s administration have argued that privatizing Japan Post would lead to cutbacks in the financial services available in rural areas. For residents of some far-flung villages and tiny islands, the local post office provides the only access to banking services.
But the move has also raised concerns that the huge state-affiliated entity could crowd out business at private banks.
“Reversing postal privatization means grave distortions will remain in the Japanese economy,” said Satoru Matsubara, a professor of economic policy at Toyo University. “The state will now be able to continue offloading bonds to Japan Post, and that will encourage reckless government spending.”
“Private banks will also suffer from unfair competition,” he said.
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1 트릴리언 달러......도대체 얼마야?
이것을 해결할 방법이 있을까? 아무런 해결 방법이 없다.
점점 사태는 커져가고 있다.
한국은 빨리 대책을 서둘러야 한다.
중국, 대만, 싱가폴, 말레이시아,호주, ...와 함께 연합체를 구성해서
일본 침몰에 대비해야 한다.
일본 침몰은 3년 내에 일어난다.
빠르면 2년 내에 일어날 가능성도 높다.
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